Universal Orlando is opening its new theme park one month from today. But is this turning out to be a terrible time for opening a new, multi-billion-dollar theme park?
Universal Epic Universe opens officially on May 22. That's around the start of the summer vacation season, which has been losing popularity in recent years as rising heat and humidity has been making Central Florida increasingly uncomfortable during the summer. Still, summer means "no school," so for many families, that remains the best time of the year to plan a vacation, regardless of weather.
Even if many theme park fans would rather visit the Central Florida parks at some other time of the year, opening a new park at the start of summer is not necessarily a bad call. Not having to face maximum demand right at opening can help a new park's team get up to full speed comfortably. Epic will have had nearly two months of previews before opening officially, but every day of practice helps before having to face a full-capacity, holiday-level crowd for the first time.
So the "May" is not so much the problem for Epic and Universal as the "2025" is turning out to be.
International travel into the United States is collapsing. Many visitors from Canada and other countries that typically drive substantial traffic to Central Florida have canceled their vacation plans for 2025 and beyond. At the same time, fears of rising prices and reduced demand are driving fears of a recession within the United States. That has many domestic travelers rethinking their plans for this summer, too.
Typically, a recession means a weaker U.S. dollar, which has encouraged international visitors to America, as a weak dollar makes it cheaper for them to visit here. But with many international visitors wanting nothing to do with the United States under its current leadership, that travel industry safety value is no longer open.
That said, Universal owner Comcast did not invest multiple billions of dollars into Epic Universe for the 2025 season. Or for 2026, or for the next handful of years. Comcast and NBCUniversal built Epic Universe for the next several generations of theme park fans, creating an expanded Orlando resort that the company hopes will become as popular as rival Walt Disney World has become over the past 50-some years.
Comcast would love to open Epic Universe to a comfortable capacity every single day of the year, for all those years to come. And it would love for those visitors all to be big spenders - filling its on-site hotels and buying out every souvenir and experience Universal offers, from Power-Up Bands to monster make-up sessions to Harry Potter interactive wands. But unless the downturn that many fear is coming becomes permanent, Universal Orlando can afford to open to less-than-full crowds for a while.
Heck, if more people's first impression of Epic comes in a year or two, when more of the park's landscaping grows in, they might be more pleased with the park than they might be at the moment now, when the spaces in between everything are a bit, uh, sparse.
But I suspect that many million of fans will find their way to Epic in 2025, even if that crowd skews more toward domestic visitors than Universal first expected. Based on initial previews, Epic looks like a strong challenger to become the nation's best theme park, and that is exciting fans. It's everyone else in the industry that needs to be worried.
Disney is fighting back against Epic in the short term with a new night parade and shows at the Walt Disney World Resort. Long term, Disney is working on a new Tropical Americans land at Disney's Animal Kingdom and Villains Land at the Magic Kingdom to remind fans why Walt Disney World has earned its place as the world's most popular theme park destination.
Six Flags and SeaWorld long have provided affordable alternatives to destination parks such as Disney and Universal. But what happens if people decide that they would rather skip frequent visits to their local park to save up for one trip to Universal? The new park just might entice some fans to think about that switch. Universal Orlando also has long offered more affordable on-site hotels than Walt Disney World (at least, for people who have not bought into Disney Vacation Club). Could Universal swipe some Disney World fans who are looking more aggressively to save some money this year?
For what it's worth, there's no point in arguing about why America facing this economic mess at the moment. (Or, to say "we told you so," as much as I and others may find that emotionally tempting.) It is what it is now, and everyone has to deal with it, including the nation's theme parks and travel industries.
So as much as some analysts may fear that this will be a bad year for Florida tourism, I think that Epic will end up making its case to become one of the top destinations for theme park fans in the United States. But Epic might also turn out to be a lonely bright spot in what could turn out to be a very bad year for the American theme park and travel industries.
To keep up to date with more travel and theme park news and analysis, please sign up for Theme Park Insider's weekly newsletter.
Yes, james i understand that seems like common sense, but to the usual traveler it would be well enough to push them away. unfortunately we are the minority of the population.
I attended the preview Saturday and can confidently state Epic will be a resounding success. It exceeded my lofty expectations and, in my opinion, is the first Universal park to have a distinct Disney feel in terms of theming, details, and ambiance. The rides are well done (MOM is truly “epic”) but it is also a park that caters to those who just like to stroll around, admire the scenery, and enjoy a dining experience. Having lived in central Florida since the 70’s, and having attendied every major theme park soon after opening since EPCOT, I do not recall having ever been more impressed with a newly constructed park. Granted, times are difficult and people have tough choices where to spend their income, but this will likely be a place people will choose to save for in the upcoming years even at the expense of other parks and vacation options.
We can sit here arguing about the year the park opens all we want, but the month the park opens is no problem at all. June, July, and December are usually the busiest months for theme parks and opening a park in late May is not a bad decision at all.
Honestly, having it not be too crowded might not be a terrible thing esp in the heat: I remember visiting Harry Potter's section of the park when in opened in 2010 at park opening and seeing 8 hour lines later.
The key will be seeing what boycotts do further down the line like winter and spring break holidays. I know fellow Canadians that are planning to go to Japan even though EU is not there. My husband and I have a cruise booked for next year and will see about popping by then depending on what happens.
Well, I did write an article\Thread a few months back about the summer being too Hot in Florida and Texas in the summer. And they might have to change to later hours, like open at 7 PM to 7 AM.
And of course, all the naysayers freaked about kids being up late at night. Bla bla bla. So here I sit, chest puffed out, feeling vindicated by the TPI boss himself… And let’s say I told you SO!!!!
We went to Universal for a few days in 2022 - the first week in September And I melted... Can't Imagine the Heat and humidity in August....
And Yes I will leave you with THE GOP are all clowns - You're welcome James...
Is there ever really an "optimal" time to open a brand new theme park? Frankly, I think Universal is doing a great job so far through their soft opening procedures and slowly ramping up operations in preparation for May 22. I think it's smart to debut a new park to the GP during a peak demand time to make sure you can get the biggest bang for your buck. Through the TM and current preview periods, Universal is able to shake down all the attractions and operations in preparation for the Grand Opening. That doesn't mean that there won't be issues on May 22nd or that Universal won't have to utilize operational tools to manage demand and capacity (VQs or other restrictions), but it will certainly enable the park to put its best foot forward and ensure the guests going out of their way to experience this park at its inception have as positive an experience as possible.
When it comes to the overall timing of this opening, unfortunately, Universal really didn't have any control over the era in which this new theme park is debuting. The last major destination theme park opening (Hard Rock Park) was heavily impacted by economic conditions, which ultimately resulted in its downfall, but I think in this case, Epic should be shielded somewhat from the potentially adverse economic conditions. This first being that this new park is part of a multi-park resort in an established vacation destination. Epic is not breaking new ground or trying to establish a new market, merely trying to expand the current market and allow Universal to capture a larger percentage of the current market share. Even with some market contraction, most likely caused by a general pullback of discretionary spending and foreign tourism, there is plenty of wealth being pumping into Orlando. While the current forecast calls for some ebbs over the next year or more, the opening of Epic should help Universal at least maintain what they have as they provide new experiences for guests that other resorts simply can't do right now (whether that's deliberate and by design or a result of other factors is for a completely different discussion). It's also unclear whether Epic ends up cannibalizing its legacy parks or not, but even if it does, it still likely means that Universal at the very least maintains its current market share until economic conditions become more advantageous to allow it to increase that share when things improve (meaning it will take longer for this park to pay off its hefty investment cost). Whether it happens now or 5+ years from now, Epic positions Universal to be the "either/or" choice to WDW instead of a 1-3 day compliment to a WDW vacation, and with the massive increase in hotel investment, Universal Orlando is poised for the first time to provide a nearly comparable vacation experience to WDW. Even if Universal is only able to lure 3-5% of WDW's share of the current market, it would be a massive win and justify the billions Comcast has spent on Epic.
Deja vu to Euro Disney opening in 1992 just as Europe was hit hard by economic issues. Obviously Universal had no idea what was coming when this was being built but will be a concern and might take longer for a profit.
One thing I think Kabletown is doing awfully well is keeping their on site hotels (for now, at least) affordable. I stayed at Stella Nova during its opening week, and assumed the reasonable nightly rate was due to Epic being a construction zone. I recently reserved 5 nights at Stella Nova around the same time period in 2026 at approximately the same price. Hopefully the success of Epic will force the Mouse to stop gouging customers on on-site hotels in order to move pricey time share contracts.
Well I'm one of those Canadians who cancelled their plans to visit due to current situation. We had February booked and went to Vancouver instead and our annual HHN trip in October we had planned to stay longer to visit Epic we've also cancelled.
I don't think May is a bad time to open under normal circumstances since the vast majority of people wouldn't take the weather into much consideration. HHN is always super hot I find but would never not usually go just because its humid and hot during that time. Some of my friends who have kids would still go in summer since it just works better timing wise. You just have to drink lots of water and plan to spend some time indoors once in a while.
I doubt the US travel boycott will do anything to Epic's initial attendance. I think it's enough of a draw for locals and Americans to fill any drop in international travelers. The legacy parks and Disney however I can totally see having major drops this summer due to the huge drop in non-Americans going to Orlando.
Will have to wait and see what the stats are for April but so far in Canada they are seeing 80% drop in airline bookings to the US for the summer travel season so I think many markets in the US are in for a rough summer.
I think we're still in "revenge" travel mode, and another economic recession isn't going to change a thing. I already know multiple people (non-theme park enthusiasts) who've flown from California and taken PTO just to visit Epic Universe.
It's been 24 years since a US Disney/Universal park has opened. That's the longest wait between domestic Disney/Universal park openings ever. It's a really really big deal and I think people are willing to shell out for a once-in-a-lifetime experience of being at a new theme park in its opening months.
As others have stated above, Epic Universe is a shiny new thing that will draw a lot of domestic travelers. The other Orlando theme parks will probably see a hit to attendance, though.
If by "revenge" travel you mean "it's my hot body and ill do what i want" that permeated the covid era? well that was me (adhering to cdc guidelines) and with this regime its another enhanced version of that. You figure that you control 99.9% of your life. times like this remind you of that. No ragrets! Not a one.
If you're opening a brand new theme park, May/June is probably the best month to do it as you can capture the summer tourism season right off the bat. While I'm sure hot summer weather may be a deterrent to some visitors, particularly in a destination that requires planning over 6 months out for a majority of visitors it's probably negligible.
As for 2025, well, it's too early to call that. If there's a short term suppression, that actually could be really good as it allows the park to open in conditions where they're less likely to be overwhelmed right out of the gate and they can spread that initial demand out as those who want to visit will still plan the trip when the time is right. The only real risk is if the park is poorly received, but given the early word of mouth I find that scenario extremely unlikely for this park. However, if we're at the start of a downturn that's going to last several years, or if conditions deteriorate significantly, then it could be a bad time for a theme park to be opening. That said, under those conditions it doesn't matter how old the park is, as even the established players could be at risk should an extended travel drought set in.
I was at Epic last week for one of the Preview days. I wasn't sure what to expect and let's just say it blew me away. The Harry Potter section perhaps less so, because who thinks of France when you think of the series, but Super Mario World had my mouth hanging open. It was unreal. I immediately bought stock in the company. The virtual queue for the Harry Potter ride filled up literally within 5 seconds which was frustrating (missed that ride as a result) but Stardust Racers catapulted to the top of my coaster rankings, despite having zero expectations. $7 billion is a lot to recoup but I certainly cannot see any situation in which the park is not well received.
The parks will be fine. Since ive stopped using youtube POV and spoiler concerns are nil. Ill probably just do a quick jaunt down there and visit the park at about 4pm. See what i can see and walk on what i can. I just want to get the layout down. The rest of my vacation will be at other Orlando parks talking about Epic. Ill be back in a couple of months and really dont want to platinum the park day one. Little worried about VQ killing spontanaiety. Potterfolk.
Unlike Disney that spends, spends, spends and gets more into debt, Universal invested its profits from the sale of its 1/3 ownership of Hulu to Disney to build DEBT-FREE Epic Universe. Epic Universe is in a way the fifth gate Disney never built but fully funded.
Disney is still in debt for building two failed Star Wars lands and one failed Star Wars hotel that it decided to not build another Star Wars land at its Paris park but make a Splash Mountain like ride themed to the animated Lion King movie.
Let's not get silly here, PV. Kabletown has over twice as much debt as the Mouse, nearly $100 billion, and they are losing hundreds of thousands of TV and broadband customers every month. Despite how good Epic looks, the company is in a very tough financial spot right now. And we are a long way from knowing if the massive investment in the overbuilt Orlando market will ever pay off.
And where are you getting this DEBT-FREE information? While the Mouse may be on the hook for $13 billion to buy out Kabletown's stake in Hulu, no money has exchanged hands between the two old media titans. They have had to come out of pocket for Epic and all the pricey infrastructure. I doubt the Mouse has regrets in buying out Hulu, which has been one of the few profitable streamers. Kabletown may regret not trying to buy out the Mouse's stake instead of betting on Peacock.
This article has been archived and is no longer accepting comments.
I am sure the responses to this will be measured and well thought out...
All I'll say is that it will take more than grandstanding from politicians to keep me from visiting a theme park I've been excited to see for years now.