Who's winning the future in Orlando - Disney or Universal?

This is pretty tough, especially if (and it's an if!) Universal announces new attractions to open by 2030 to compete with Disney's lineup. Dark Universe is atop my most anticipated list, but the next handful of spots are all going to Disney World. So, just judging by what we know now, I'm going with Disney.

Disney's reactionary moves, especially since the addition of Harry Potter at Universal / Islands of Adventure have been obvious. The bigger problem is Disney+. It's a money pit that hasn't mad a dime, and is actually 14B in the hole (so far).

Could you imagine if Disney gave JK Rowling full creative control and a blank check all those years ago? They would literally be unstoppable.

Epic Universe, simply because it's on the horizon. Hopefully Disney does something nice with that ferry boat, and not just decommission it because it's old. It'd be nice to see it used in another park, or even Disney Springs

Universal and IOA have no marquee rides in my opinion. Id take a Cheetah Hunt over Hagrids. Id take Iron Gwazi over Velocicoaster. Pipeline and Manta are ride experiences not done at every 3rd theme park you can list. Dark Rides wise they had a gem with Jaws but Tower of Terror is worthy of a trip to Orlando on its own and will have you second guessing elevators for the rest of your life. Dark Universe is going to take 18 months to get everything running smoothly. They are attempting to capitalze on properties (dragon, harry) whose finest days are behind them. Disney is doing well enough and actually has plans that spans decades instead of a few years to the point that if Universal folded tomorrow Disney wouldnt bother to even scoop up the land or any of the rides for relocation. Put velocicoaster on the side of I4 and charge $10 a ride. Thats universal in a nutshell. And the guy that brings up Disney plus... please stop. Thats just a marketing arm for them this is how they hype their new rides and funnel people to what makes sense. Hell more people on Disney property at this moment than are actively watching 5th and 6th place of the streaming wars. Sometimes you just want a horse in the race so you get to wear that funny hat. You dont have to win.

I think it is difficult to judge at this point because 1) scant information has been provided regarding the details of Disney’s new lands and rides and 2) Disney’s additions are spread over parks thousands of miles from each other while Universal’s are concentrated in one park. If Disney matches the quality of Star Wars Land/ROTR and Pandora/FOP I think they will ultimately “win” but Universal also has rumored additions for their other Orlando parks and plenty of room for Epic expansion. In my opinion, Epic missed an opportunity by including a family Mack spinner coaster, like can be found down the road at Busch Gardens, versus a Mack Xtreme spinner coaster like Journey to Happiness , arguably one of the best coasters in the world and found only in an obscure theme park in Belgium (Silver Dollar City’s version is essentially an early prototype). A world class ride like Journey to Happiness could tip the scales in favor of one company over the other.

I would have chosen Universal if Kabletown’s plans involved upgrading the existing parks instead of adding a new gate in a non walkable location. Developing a 7th (or 8th depending on how you rate Sea World) destination park to an already saturated Orlando market is much riskier than what the Mouse is proposing to do down the road given the softness in the theme park sector.

This is a difficult question to answer after D23. We would have to factor in what universal is planning with IOA (Zelda?) And Studios (Pokémon?) to make a true comparison. Universal could announce something in the next two years, and they are more likely to be greenlit, detailed, and built well before Disney’s D23 WDW announcements open. So the short answer is Disney, but the long game I would favor Universal. They are flush with Hulu cash (thanks Bob!) and seem to have a coherent game plan for the future. They also have the benefit of general goodwill in that right now they are perceived as more customer friendly and not gouging every penny. The upcoming destruction of Rivers of America and the Muppets to install meh IP attractions are odd decisions and speak to lack of creativity with Imagineering and frugality that will hurt them in the future. Disney will be the 400 pound gorilla for a while, but Universal has the momentum over the next decade.

I'm excited for both companies' upcoming developments, but I'm definitely more excited for what Universal has on the horizon because it's far more clear what they're building than what Disney has on tap. I think Villains land could be one of Disney's boldest endeavors, but they've provided so little detail about it, I can't get excited for it without knowing what the land will contain. The same goes for Cars, and while all the talk has been about the ditching of Rivers of America and Tom Sawyer Island, if Disney can come up with 2 Cars attractions that are even better than what's in DCA, then the losses will be easily forgotten. However, Disney has offered no indication of the types of attractions we can see, or even if either will be a true e-ticket.

I'm pretty excited for the new Avatar land in California and an attraction that appears to utilize the Shanghai Pirates ride system, but while it initially looked like this land would go into the Toy Story Parking lot expansion, there are rumors that this might be taking over space in DCA between Soarin' and GRR (that may include eliminating the raft ride and adjacent nature trails), which will remove more California from a park that loses a bit more of its original identity with each passing year. The Tropical Americas additions to DAK are desperately needed to balance the park, but how different will the Indy ride be from Disneyland's version and what exactly will the Encanto attraction be? Far too many questions to get too excited about. The same goes for the Monsters Inc coaster, which could be pretty revolutionary, but where that goes in a park tight on space and what the capacity of the attraction will be are questions that are just too big to ignore, which mutes any excitement.

Over at Universal, all of the attractions have been clearly detailed for Epic and for the ones where they haven't specifically identified the ride system, there are pretty solid rumors detailing what guests can expect. Dark Universe could be one of the most revolutionary theme park lands in the world (and a likely inspiration for Disney to finally give Villains the green light). The change of attitude in entertainment to make anti-heroes the stars and fan favorites is something that has never really made it into a theme park on a scale of Dark Universe, so I'm really excited at how Universal makes this work and are still able to appeal to smaller kids and families that will need to be catered to if Epic is to meet its goals. Also, let's not forget about the Fast and Furious coaster under construction at USH, which is shaping up to be the biggest addition to the theme park landscape in 2026, and might finally give one of the most lucrative franchises in the Universal portfolio its do.

However, for as excited as I am about Universal's developments, I'm concerned with the way they are planning to exploit that excitement and demand through pricing, rules, and crowd control systems. Universal has always zigged when Disney has zagged, so it's disappointing to hear rumors of the company digging into the Disney playbook in terms of forcing guests to make reservations, using pricing as a way to control crowds, and to add layers of rules to force guests to do things and buy stuff they don't necessarily want. I'm not letting that cloud my excitement for Epic since none of it is official yet, but it is a cloud on the horizon that could severely dim the excitement for the new park.

"JK Rowling"? (Chuckle)

Comcast has no announced plans for anything big at its existing domestic parks. They are building a family park in Texas and (maybe) another park in the UK.

Disney has announced plans for Florida expansions and is moving on Disneyland Forward.

Also there's this: TEA/AECOM Theme Park Index 2023
Disney Experiences - 142 Million
Comcast Destinations & Experiences - 60 Million

Disney has the resources and foot traffic going into their parks. Worldwide their brand is stronger than Comcast's. What's more their floating theme parks (DCL) will continue to capture a healthy chunk of the vacation experiences market.

Also, in the past, the companies that have stomped through ownership of the Comcast parks have eventually sold them off to someone else. The Universal parks could end up part of Elon Musk's empire -- an acquisition he would pursue just to make him believe he could be a real boy.

No matter how the Comcast fanboys respond to this decidedly unscientific, online survey, Disney wins ... again.

Russell: (Above): " Dark Universe could be one of the most revolutionary theme park lands in the world (and a likely inspiration for Disney to finally give Villains the green light). The change of attitude in entertainment to make anti-heroes the stars and fan favorites is something that has never really made it into a theme park on a scale of Dark Universe, so I'm really excited at how Universal makes this work ..."

Also Russell (06/20/24): "I do really worry about what guests are supposed to do here. There are only 2 rides and some streetmosphere. Considering how long it took Universal to get a decent throughput on HPFJ, I hope they have run Monster's Unchained through its paces so it can hit the ground running, because the Wolfman coaster doesn't look like a people eater. There doesn't appear to be anything in the land to give guests something to do unless they want to do the (likely upcharge) makeup attraction or eat."

Just sayin'.

A guy can't be worried and excited at the same time TH? Hey, at least Universal has given fans something to get excited about. Many of Disney's announcements (most notably the ones for the MK) don't even detail what's being added other than some glossy concept drawings and general themes (Cars and Villains). Sure, I'm excited to see what Disney does with those big additions, but it's so far off in the distance, and likely to change and potentially gutted in scope like has happened to past announcements (Play Pavilion, Mary Poppins, MK Theater, etc...) that I don't want to work up a lather for those additions just yet. Epic is less than a year away, and the F&F coaster might be open before many of the D23 announcements ever break ground.

I voted for Universal because the Dark Universe land and HP ride look amazing. This would only be a fair comparison if Disney's new lands were opening in 2025 or 2026 but they won't open until between 2030-2040 at the earliest. Universal will most likely announce new rides for both IOA and UOF after Epic opens so then we can truly compare.

Even though the new lands at Disney are going to be amazing we all know they are going to be adding another boat ride. Can't have a new land at Disney without a boat ride!

As others unhesitatingly defend their Orlando park favorites, I too find it difficult to get overtly excited about the announcement of "lands" when some have little to no detailed information. Disney is definitely giving me smoke & mirrors for now, but time will tell.

@Russell: Just teasing ya, big man. But you need to be fair, you did say Dark Universe was limited in what it has to offer. Also calling out EPCOT's PLAY! and Poppins without referencing the pandemic effect is a bit of a cheap shot.

I voted Universal, just because that is the one that is closer in the immediate future. As we all know, just because Disney announced future additions doesn’t necessarily mean they are a certainty (New Fantasyland meet and greets, Main Street Theater, Mary Poppins ride, Play Pavilion). Ask me again a year from now and I’d probably swing the other way.

My God these comments. If you think Disney has a bright future compare to universal, I got some swamp land to sell you. The post 2016 Disney nosedive should be taught in business school. How to ruin a monopoly in less than 10 years.

The son never sets on Disney Theme Parks. If you find ferrari world and universal as anything other than also-rans then good for you.

@Bgko18: Disney is and/or was "a monopoly"?

Here's where things stand for me...

Walt Disney World has projects that they've added in recent years that I want to check out but haven't yet got the opportunity to do so. I also find some of the projects that they announced at D23 appealing, with Villains Land potentially being the Orlando project I'm most excited about period. However, there are also a fair number of upcoming Disney projects I'm neutral at best on, and the experience of Walt Disney World as a whole is so diminished that I find it hard to justify spending time and money on the resort. I didn't set foot on Disney property the last time I was in Orlando in 2022 after how unsatisfactory my 2021 trip was, and the continued use of things like virtual queues, semi-mandatory upcharges, and reduced entertainment schedules means despite how appealing attractions may be, I'm not likely to actually visit for them unless the guest experience improves.

For Universal, I'd say about 80% of Epic Universe is stuff I'm pretty excited about, with the cloned aspects of Super Nintendo World making up the bulk of stuff I'm less hyped for (but would still check out on a visit). However, while Epic Universe will get a Florida trip from me (likely 2026), it will probably only net one Universal trip, and it's really going to take more major investments both at that park and at the other two properties to keep me coming back. Attractions like Villain-Con are fine, but they're not going to affect my decision whether or not to make a Florida trip, so Universal needs to have additions on par with Hagrid's or VelociCoaster lined up every couple years for me to return to the regular visits I was doing in the past.

Who's winning Orlando? At this moment, I'd lean toward Universal in the short term, but the long term game I think is still a bit of a toss-up. If all of Disney's announcements come to fruition without budget cuts, and if they can improve the guest experience to the level it was ten years ago, and if Universal winds up dropping the ball on the rumored additions they've got in the pipeline, Disney could pull back ahead. However, in my mind they've got a much steeper hill to climb than Universal in order to win the Orlando crown by the end of the decade.

@TH - I did say that, and I stand behind that statement and the challenges Universal will have in drawing guests who want to explore this land beyond the rides, which may have capacity and technical issues. Universal is taking a huge risk basing an entire land around an IP that's not only antiquated (and failed pretty miserably when Universal tried to revive it in theaters), but it focuses on stories and characters that don't always have the happiest of arcs, which is not the typical content for a family theme park experience. However, I'm excited to see how Universal approaches this challenge, and how they figure out ways to keep guests engaged (particularly smaller shows and vignettes to keep guests occupied while they're waiting to ride the 2 rides).

I think it's understood that some of the announced Disney projects fell victim to the Pandemic, but Universal was under the same conditions while in the process of building an entirely new theme park, and from what we've seen, most of the original Epic design and plans have remained mostly in tact with just a delay in the construction process caused by the Pandemic. Sure, Disney can point to the Pandemic as to why announced additions have been mothballed, but as you yourself have said that you were expecting something out of D23 to address Play Pavilion, especially considering the resources spent to fix the roof and the prime air conditioned space the former Wonders of Life pavilion represents.

I think Disney puts itself in these positions, because of their desire (and thirst from fans) to know what's coming years in advance, and because of that, some of what they announce ends up getting cancelled or significantly modified either because of budgetary reasons or sometimes because concepts are too ambitious. Universal tends to holds things closer to the vest, which also leads to the perception that it takes Disney far longer to build attractions than Universal when in the end the development/construction timelines are probably not that different, but seem that way because Disney announces stuff a year or 2 sooner than Universal would ever consider officially announcing anything.

In my view, Disney's approach has gotten old, and has numbed my excitement for their attractions because I've gotten burned in the past looking forward to additions that are far off from becoming reality and/or end up being significant different from the original concept because of the premature announcement. I know that when Universal officially announces something, it's going to be pretty close to what they actually have announced, and in the case of Epic, we're less than a year away from being able to experience them. That doesn't mean I'm not excited for what Disney has announced, just that I need to mute my excitement for them because they're so far away from becoming reality if they ever do make it beyond those pretty concept drawings and models that Imagineers presented at D23.

@Russell: it is indeed crazy how the internet and thirst for immediate gratification by fans has prompted Disney to announce things so far in advance. And it is what is ultimately frustrating about the recent announcements, because even though Josh D’Amaro said that everything shown had either broken ground or had plans officially drawn, we are still left wondering how long such an ambitious slate of expansions and additions might take. One would think that at minimum the WDW projects would be given priority to help quell the surge of momentum that EU will be riding. I realize that Disney is ever-equipped to play the long game, but just how long of a long game are we talking about here? Trust me, I’m super excited for all of the announced projects, but I also kind of miss the days when I would find out that Disney was building something like the Tower of Terror because construction had gone vertical and I could actually see it being built.

So I’ll cheat and say the both Universal AND Disney are winning the future. Universal in the short term and Disney in the longer term, though I’ve no doubt that Universal probably has things planned for IoA and UO once the initial phase of EU had been underway for a year or two. I’ve said until I’m blue in the face and I’ll say it again, it’s an exciting and unparalleled time to be a theme park fan.

Russell: So you're asserting that if the pandemic never happened Disney would've still cancelled PLAY! and Poppins?

TH's greatest hits.... again.(Chuckle)

Posts the TEA/AECOM when they suit his narrative, but gets upset when they show Universal's 62% spike in attendance after Potter opened.

Sounds like a lot of fear, uncertainty, doubt, projection and denial. Disney had to be winning in that mind of yours, otherwise you wouldn't be able to sleep at night.

You are entertaining for sure. Half of Disney's announcements get canceled, and there is no construction of any of the things they mentioned currently.

Comcast Universal is most definitely winning at the moment. The TPI poll is not good for your psyche.

The fact that Disney passed on the book, movie, and theme parks rights to HP must be a sore spot for many pixie dusters.

@NB: When did I get upset after attendance after Comcast's Islands of Adventure park attendance spiked after the Harry Potter attractions opened?

Also NB, if you believe the inside sources, Disney didn't "pass" on putting Potter in its parks. As the story goes, the concepts presented to Ms. Rowling and Warner Brothers were underwhelming.

And the result? In 2023, according to TEA/AECOM the Disney parks worldwide welcomed more than twice as many guests as Comcast's. Actually double Comcast's numbers, plus another 20 million guests.

And "pixie dusters"? Really? That tired old tripe? Are you incapable of creating original content?

I guess you should go back and read the archives. Your emotional involvement tied to Disney's success is a bit odd. Comcast is winning, and it seems to be a problem for you.

So I "should go back and read the archives"? I would assume since you pointed the finger you already did that research.

Or are you making stuff up?

(Chuckle)

TPI has a search feature. Took all about 60 seconds.

Universals big problem is what/when/where and how for any attraction they introduce.

How: Trackless ride systems are just BAD. I'm so sick of them. I think Runaway Railroad did it best because there is so much going on visually.

Where: Despite being unique and independent parks IOA and US should not have the same ride systems. Another Velocicoaster or Dr. Dooms Freefall at the opposite park just dilutes the other altering the sentiment to the inferior ride (the new one could be inferior).

What: People are going to be on their phones until we mature to the point that we only have smartwatches (but those tik toks are so important). You can't do shows unless they are meme-able or have a stunt element or are like Fear Factor or Gameshows. Maybe a dedicated Halloween land that you can leverage 365 and has rotating residency.

When: I expect further declines at Universal and Islands for the 18 months after EU opens. We are going to see a lot of rainchecks and refunds. People haven't been trained enough (and messages get lost) to think that if they show up in Orlando that they CANT GET INTO the new park. That's going to leave bitterness the likes of cigarette smokers and brands they won't smoke. This isn't Le Deux or the Viper Room. People have spreadsheets for vacations and they know their dates well in advance. If getting into a park requires a lottery system we need to know NOW. Once tickets come online people are going to be clicking and expecting the EXACT vacation they want. When buttons are ghosted, long disclaimers, claiming showtimes, fast passes, restaurant times, parking, hotels that aren't on site, and the curse of every conceivable upgrade being prepurchasable you are going to have a lot of people not making it to the final shopping cart and buying now. When Jimmy Fallon and Kevin Hart do their obligatory check out this new place that segment better tell me how I get tickets because the first rule of advertising is people see exactly what they want to see.

They need to soft open as soon as possible by offering visitors to the other parks a chance to spend an hour or 2 in the park as part of a walking tour (hard hat) as soon as the lawyers say they can do it. Make that a $200 upgrade. They have VIP tours at Universal and IOA already around that cost. I would gladly pay that upgrade to get a bus tour with spoken guide and then taken on a quick (maybe not hardhat tour) of the park where you are allowed to look at what's done and maybe if a ride is available then the tour group gets to ride that. I'd pay that $200 upcharge beyond a days ticket price to Universal. Start there.

Who: Disney has none of these problems. Business as usual. They may or may not have construction walls. That's more of an attraction than the debacle that will be Universal circa 2025-2027

"I Respond: Please. TEA is an organization that promotes the themed entertainment industry. I have no doubt that ALL of the statistics in this report are inflated. Perhaps Mr. Niles will identify the Tweeter." - Anonymous

Time will tell.

None of these projects are finished yet.

Formula 40 - Disney talks a big game at D23 solely because of the hype around Epic Universe. Everything is 5 (more like 10 years away). I'd be surprised if any of it comes to fruition.

Losing tens of billions with their failed streaming service. Not sure how they are going to pay for all this.

@NB: That constitutes me being upset? And wouldn't my use of the word "all" include Disney as well?

You are really grasping at straws, aren't you?

TH, what are you talking about? That quote was listed as Anonymous. Surely, that could have been anybody considering you think TEA/AECOM reports are solid as long as your beloved company is at the top of the list and would never question the validity of them.

TEA/AECOM - Disney is the number one spot? AWESOME!!!

TEA/AECOM - Universal spiked 62%? FAKE!!! RIGGED!!!

The funny thing is, I'm not the only one who questions blind loyalty. Those discussion forums (and archived posts) are packed with people who noticed an odd obsession with attendance figures and the need to be first, even in fake reports.

@NB - TH has been pretty consistent in their analysis of the TEA/AECOM report, and even mentioned that when commenting on the current numbers by noting that the report might have finally gotten close, at least for Disney's numbers, since Iger had recently provided some hard estimates for WDW on a recent investor call. A broken clock is still right twice a day is an apt analogy here, and I think TH is absolutely spot on in consistently questioning the accuracy of the numbers given that the report STILL fails to provide an actual methodology to how they are derived.

In the end, does it really matter? I think there's no debate that WDW pulls more guests than anywhere else on the planet, and while UO has seen gains since WWoHP, it's hitting a bit of a rough patch without a big addition to the resort and the anticipation for Epic.

You: "Surely, that could have been anybody considering you think TEA/AECOM reports are solid as long as your beloved company is at the top of the list and would never question the validity of them."

Me: (Chuckle) From Russell (commenting on this year's TEA/AECOM Report): "I'll wait for TH's astute analysis before providing any comments on the data here, because I'm sure he will correctly point out the flawed methods and consistent inaccuracies that are found in these annual reports".

From me (same report, where Disney is on top): "Many of the stats presented in the report are the product of estimates and not numbers provided by the park operators (i.e.: Disney and Universal). Readers of the report are asked to accept the numbers -- despite the fact that TEA/AECOM does not breakdown their methods ("show their math") to illustrate how they come their conclusions."

My response to the report on 2018: " if you believe the TEA/AECOM estimates, my hometown of Orlando has parks that welcomed in excess of 83 million visitors in 2018. And that's not counting the water theme parks or DSTP. Congrats to Disney, Universal and Sea World!"

See how I congratulated Universal in there?

And you seem to have overlooked this assessment of the report for 2017 from yours truly: "Taken from that perspective, and if you believe TEA/AECOM, little has changed since 2016. And (for the record) I believe the Magic Kingdom stats are inflated".

Would this not be an example of me questioning the validity of the report as it relates to the attendance at the Magic Kingdom (Disney) -- claiming the numbers are "inflated"?

Here, let me help you up off the mat.

NEXT!

I respond: (massive eye roll and epic sigh)

Bunch of Tom Petty's in here. Find some joy people. Unless you are CEO if whatever park you are part of the defense force for get over it. 99.9999% of the people you would have these arguments with in real life would back away slowly before running.

Universal is literally building the future as we speak. It opens in 2025. Disney talked about the future at D23. There's your difference.

Maybe Disney should fix all their broken attractions first, like Disco Yeti,

NB: "Comcast is literally building the future ..."

Me: ... except within its existing Orlando parks, yes.

I'd also note that if Universal is going to do anything with the parts of IOA/USF that are sagging in terms of interest (Fear Factor, F&F, Jimmy Fallow, RRR, Lost Continent, or Toon Lagoon) they better get to work soon if they want to have anything of substance ready to open by 2026. The oft-rumored Legend of Zelda overlay of Lost Continent will take a solid 18-24 months to build, so if they want to piggyback on the interest in Epic and beat the next tidal wave of WDW additions, Universal better get to work.