Earnings slip at Universal's theme parks to start the year

This really doesn’t surprise me as Universal in Orlando is in a state of limbo as their 3rd park is now about a year away and people are waiting until it opens. Americans are also having to be very budget aware at this time as their paychecks aren’t going as far as they used to. In California, where I live, gas prices are surging to almost $6 a gallon, a week’s worth of groceries which just 3 years ago ran about $120 now averages $190.
Money doesn’t go very far right now and people are having to make cuts and pricey vacations are usually the first to go.

It’s interesting that Cavanagh noted that Hollywood was up year over year, even with lapping the SNW opening in early 2023. Attendance at Universal seems solely to be a Florida problem. We’ll see in Disney’s report whether that extends to all operators in the state or if it’s just a matter of potential Universal visitors waiting for Epic.

I was at WDW about 3 weeks ago and attendance was exceptionally light. It reminded me of how post-vacation Januarys used to be. I know that when I went it was pretty much the week after all Spring Breakers had left, so take that into account as well, but even still it was much less crowded than I can ever remember a visit in April ever was before. It seems that vacationers to Florida are being much more choosy when “picking their spots” than they used to. I haven’t been to UO in a couple of years so I can’t speak to its attendance levels.

I was at Magic Kingdom two days ago and it was moderately busy. Same at Universal the week before. Usually after spring break all of the parks drop into the green until school is officially out, but there seems to be some ebb and flow going on. While one WDW park is way up, the other three are down. Universal seems to be the steadiest right now. The traffic there feels higher than last year at this same time with capacity levels averaging around 50 percent during the week and much higher on the weekends.

I have noticed one thing at Universal. People are spending less money on souvenirs, and in the restaurants, both sit down and quick, aren't as busy. It's been a lot easier to snag a reservation inside and outside in Citywalk.

@fattyackein, you visited WDW on a really great week. I wish it was still like that. :(

If inflation were the problem the revenues would be down across the country. In fact, the economy is roaring and people are doing better than ever.

The real issue is Florida and the rank MAGA cult. If you have a female, an LGBTQ+ person or a person of color in your family, Florida, under its current state government, is a hostile place. Who would take their daughter to a state where she could be forced to give birth? Who wants to visit a place with non-existent gun control laws?

Not me, certainly not when I can just visit the parks in Cali.

Please give it a rest with the politics — Florida tourism is just fine. 2023 saw tourism numbers the highest they’ve been since 2016. And the state is far from hostile to anyone who is not a lunatic.

>> Nintendo themed bland Donkey Kong Country

Either that’s a typo, or a spoiler for an upcoming review…

Posting this from WDW right now and all the parks are packed with wait times in excess of over 30-90+ minutes for C D and E ticket style rides.

Universal is far from a ghost town, but most rides are walk on or have an under 30 minute wait (not counting Velocicoaster or Hagrids).

And I hope everybody can agree that it didn’t help one bit for the current governor of the state to specifically target and go after the biggest tourist attraction in the state. Rather than spending any effort trying to convince more tourists to visit, he chose to pick a losing political battle with no winner.

This seems to support the theory that a slowing of revenge tourism coupled with postponement due to Epic Universe are probably contributing factors for Florida. I don't think it's a coincidence that since they've started the hype machine for the new park attendance has dropped a bit in Florida. While I don't anticipate this year being a major dropoff, I expect it will probably be a bit lighter than last year throughout, then next year will shatter records at the resort.

Japan is going to be interesting to watch because they've got one headliner closed for the year (Jurassic Park), just closed one headliner permanently (Spider-Man), and have significantly delayed their new attraction for this year (Donkey Kong). I could see a slower Q2 followed by big Q3 and Q4 there, but with such a strong local audience the park might absorb the closures and delays without negative impact. Hollywood's probably going to be kept strong by Nintendo this year, then the new coaster next year should bump them up even further.

@smclaugh99,
@thecolonel's strongly worded opinion doesn't do much to move the discourse forward, but I'm sure he isn't completely wrong. Florida had always been a welcoming place to tourists, any tourists, then all of a sudden its governor starts trying to win political points with his base at the expense of plenty of Americans who don't agree with him, and implies strongly that Florida is not a place welcoming of those with view that differ from his own. Whether the state is hostile to others is besides the point--he has basically said "if you don't agree with me, stay away," and voila--folks get the message. A similar thing seems to be going on with Tesla, where now that there are decent electric vehicle options besides Tesla, the share of Democrats purchasing Teslas has plummeted. Republicans, on average, still don't seem all that interested in buying electric, so it's not enough to make up the difference. I don't believe this is the only reason for the dip, two others being an economy that is increasingly squeezed (in CA this effect isn't as pronounced on the parks because more locals go, not requiring as many to make a huge investment on a big vacation to keep numbers up), and the inevitable impact of the upcoming opening of Epic Universe on folks saving for that moment. But really, why would it only be one of these factors?

Haven't opened a major new attraction at UO since 2021 ... Tried to call the Minion thing a "land" ... Please ... Closed Lost Continent ... Fear Factor Theater and Toon Lagoon Theater are basically racoon colonies ... The Shrek thing targets families with small children ... And (my favorite) archair theme park designers are postulating on The Simpsons being replaced (another attraction space closed for two years) for mythical Pokemon and Zelda lands.

If Disney dragged its feet on adding attractions the way UC/UO has, the YouTube/Hate-Disney vlogging army would be howling loudly.

But here's the thing: Building attractions is expensive. Really, really, really expensive. More expensive than it has ever been. I don't blame UO/UC for the absence of new attractions. But I will say the financial performance being reported on TPI today is gonna be the norm for some time to come.

Epic Universe doesn't just threaten the WDW market share. Spending a day at a theme park is always expensive. Why would families spend hundreds of dollars to visit attractions they've already experienced ... multiple times.

Robert (or anyone else for that matter), have you seen any real-world surveys that untangle why Florida theme park tourism is down? I'm thinking of ones with questions like "The politics in Florida has caused me to alter my regular travel plans Y/N". Without that, everyone here is just making it up and everybody's guess is as good as any other.

Florida is "far from hostile to anyone who is not a lunatic," or doesn't have a uterus, or isn't trans, or is white . . .

FOW: Robert (or anyone else for that matter), have you seen any real-world surveys that untangle why Florida theme park tourism is down?

Me: "Why?" Because there is an absence of major new attractions.

TEA/AECOM year over year attendance 2010 and 2011. In 2010, attendance at IOA was estimated at 5,925,000. In 2011, TEA/AECOM put the attendance at 8,044,000 -- an increase of 1.4 million guests. Why? New attractions. The Wizarding World of Harry Potter (Hogsmeade) opened.

TEA/AECOM year over year attendance 2014 and 2015. In 2014, attendance at USF was estimated at 7,062,000. In 2015, TEA/AECOM put the attendance at 9,585,000 -- an increase of 2.5 million guests. Why? New attractions. The Wizarding World of Harry Potter (Diagon Alley) opened.

Epic Universe will be a big hit. It will bring in (I've estimated) between 12 and 13 million in 2026 (its first full year of operations). But if Comcast continues to avoid major expansions at its existing parks (Diagon Alley is about to celebrate its 10th anniversary) USF and IOA will be ghost towns.

Side note (anecdotally): Three different families I know visited UO Volcano Bay in May. They said the park was so empty they could've had their own personal lifeguard.

@thecolonel: You have exactly zero credible, published economic/demographic data that shows a causal relationship between Florida politics and tourism. None.

Meanwhile, from the Florida Chamber of Commerce: "Florida has seen rapid population growth over the past few years, adding over 1 million net new residents since the release of the Florida 2030 Blueprint. Looking ahead to 2024, the Florida Chamber Foundation has forecasted another 225,000-275,000 new Floridians in its recently released economic predictions for 2024".

Yeah ... People are avoiding Florida ... Because of ... (Chuckle) ... politics.

NEXT!

Credit cards are maxed out. Can't use your house like an ATM machine with the current interest rates. No surprise to see attendance soften. Just need a weather event to blame it all on!

Universal has updated its line up each year. 2023 minions and 2024 Dreamworks - both good updates to areas of the park that needed it. Any themepark expansion will cost money, but these changes make perfect sense when the big money goes on Epic. But these are not areas that will attract people to visit Florida, like VelociCoaster or Hagrids would have done. The same with Disney with Moana - these are decent (if not excellently themed) theme park additions, that fill out the day and keep guests happy they have seen something new - not give a reason to have a two week holiday in Florida.

From a UK perspective - Its just more and more expensive to holiday in Florida. If you've been over in the last 3 years, there is lack of reasons to go this year when next year you have Epic and the return of the dinning plan in Disney. Sure a fall in visitors is forecasted behind closed doors for both Universal and Disney in 2024 and we shouldn't be surprised either. Epic will be enough to bring growth to the Florida figures for the foreseeable future - this is the calm before that happens.

CoasterDroid: "The same with Disney with Moana - these are decent (if not excellently themed) ..."

Me: Moana: The Journey of Water is located right next to the Living Seas and includes educational placards throughout? How is that not in keeping with the original theme of that part of the park?

TH Creative polite takedown of thecolonel’s histrionic diatribes is noted with admiration. I do love his/her/xir use of Tim Capello (sax player from Lost Boys) as an avatar.

I'm going to stay out of the political weeds here, but I agree with most here that see a lack of new attractions and the slow trickle of details being released about Epic Universe as the primary reasons for the slowing of the Orlando market. Those of us that follow the industry closely typically plan trips years in advance, particularly when it involves a destination resort building a major new attraction, new land, or a completely new theme park. In other words, if you are in any way a theme park fan, you're probably not going to Orlando this summer unless you've been putting off a trip since before the Pandemic (or like us are taking a quick weekend trip to see new attractions at the less popular parks). Tack on the recent Epic Universe announcements that are likely to continue through the summer, a wider audience of casual theme park goers are now becoming aware of the new park opening in 2025, and any spontaneous trips to the area are probably not going to happen or will get curtailed somewhat.

Beyond the lack of new attractions and the debut of Epic Universe in 2025, I think there's something else at play that AJ hinted at. In 2023, it was all about "revenge travel", which had started in mid-late 2022, but came to a head last summer as people with extra disposable income from not traveling over the previous 2 years and other savings brought on by the Pandemic took large or multiple vacations in a way to make up for what was lost since 2020. However, with higher interest rates, inflation, and less disposable income available now, people are being a bit more careful with their spending on vacations this summer, but there's still a lot of YOLO attitude out there. I've read a number of different views on this, and it does seem that Americans (including myself) are choosing to travel abroad this summer, not necessarily because they don't want to go to Florida (for whatever reason, be that political or other), but because travelers are looking for new, unique experiences. With few new attractions, and an experience that is almost as expensive as traveling abroad, it should not be surprising to see people not wanting to make return visits to Orlando right now, particularly with the prospects of an even tighter economic environment on the horizon.

I think that's what we're seeing across the Orlando market, and save for Epic Universe and the major investments Disney is planning for the later half of the decade, the market will probably continue to be pretty flat. The mantra of "if you build it, they will come," still applies, but as TH has noted, building has gotten REALLY REALLY expensive, and even with absurdly high prices and stricter guest controls to optimize park capacity, achieving acceptable ROI is going to get increasingly more difficult to achieve.

Russell: "I'm going to stay out of the political weeds here, but I agree with most here that see a lack of new attractions and the slow trickle of details being released about Epic Universe as the primary reasons for the slowing of the Orlando market ..."

Me: Can I assume you mean "a lack of COMCAST attractions"? The poor performance outlined in the article at the top of the thread specifically identifies Universal as the sluggish park. I think I do a decent job pointing out that it's Comcast with nothing new (Diagon Alley, 2014) . It's Comcast that has the dead zones in its existing parks (theaters, Lost Continent). What's more, D23 is three months away. Is there any doubt that the event will include a parade of specific plans/projects that will actually be breaking ground at Disney's Orlando properties?

Make no mistake, I hope, I hope, I hope that Comcast counters and announces some major E-tix at USF and IOA. Please! As I have noted before, fearing attendance cannibalization, UO began work on 'Men In Black: Alien Attack' in 1998 -- to offset the shiny new IOA park. As of now, no such gate-crasher has been confirmed at Comcast's existing Orlando parks.

Again, TPI is reporting that the Comcast parks in Orlando are stalling. The opening of Comcast's Epic Universe will spark a mountain of business at that park. As for USF and IOA, tumbleweeds don't buy tickets to get in the gates.

I completely see where you're coming from TH. Just spitballing here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Comcast felt that the 1-2 punch of Hagrid's and Velocicoaster (a deliberately staged investment to replace Dueling Dragons/Dragon Challenge) were impacted by the Pandemic - Hagrid's opened in 2019, while Velocicoaster opened in 2021, and that the increased investment to finish the latter during the Pandemic, and the reduced ROI resulting from the Pandemic has probably impacted Comcast's desire to further invest in the parks - not to mention the likely explosion of costs post-pandemic to finish Epic Universe. That's not to say Comcast shouldn't be concerned that their legacy parks may struggle in the coming years if continuing major investments are not made. As has been discussed here and elsewhere, there are numerous rumors regarding various expansions to IOA and USF, and it would be foolish for Comcast to not announce new major attractions that would debut by 2026 and 2027, particularly for a certain IP that Comcast will lose the license to in a couple of years.

Whether Comcast actually does anything is anyone's guess. Maybe they're waiting to see how IOA and USF are impacted when Epic Universe opens. Perhaps they're waiting to see what timeline Disney reveals, knowing that they can probably still beat them to the punch given their recent history. It's also possible that Comcast is going to utilize admission products to push guests to the 2 older parks without having to add major new attractions by leveraging the popularity of the new shiny toy (EU). If nothing else, the next 4-6 months could be very interesting, and obviously the excitement for Epic Universe will build into the beginning of 2025 as well as Disney's planned expansions that will likely be formally announced at D23 in August.

Russell: "Whether Comcast actually does anything is anyone's guess. Maybe they're waiting to see how IOA and USF are impacted when Epic Universe opens. Perhaps they're waiting to see what timeline Disney reveals, knowing that they can probably still beat them to the punch given their recent history."

Me: Sure. Or "perhaps" Comcast will spin-off its parks, or sell off its TV and movie division. After all if the internet can speculate that model about Disney, there's no reason not to wonder if Comcast might choose that same strategy. How many corporations have owned the UO parks? I've lost count.

TH: "Haven't opened a major new attraction at UO since 2021...Epic Universe doesn't just threaten the WDW market share. Spending a day at a theme park is always expensive. Why would families spend hundreds of dollars to visit attractions they've already experienced ... multiple times."

Is this a problem that is unique to Universal? Or does it also affect Disney? Animal Kingdom & Hollywood Studios both had their most recent attractions open before the 2021 year you mentioned. Does the same question affect HS & DAK ("why would families spend hundred of dollars to visit attractions they've already experienced")?

If this is a uniquely Universal problem, why?

TH: "It's Comcast that has the dead zones in its existing parks (theaters, Lost Continent)."

Again, is this unique to Universal or does it also affect Disney(Wonders of Life pavilion, Stitch's Great Escape, Discovery River Lagoon, etc)? If it's only a Universal problem, why?

@MyHandsDontScan: I don't think I ever said that Comcast's failure to invest in the existing Orlando Comcast parks is unique to Comcast. In fact I did write "I don't blame UO/UC (Comcast) for the absence of new attractions".

The article at the top of the thread is pointing out that Comcast's latest financials on its existing Florida theme parks are lagging. I am contending that Comcast has not invested in these parks. I never said that Comcast's neglect of the Comcast parks in Orlando is unique to Comcast.

Do I think Disney's financials related to Orlando will also be less-than-stellar? Well I won't make predictions, but it wouldn't surprise me.

The difference is, if Disney adds new attractions in the years to come it will be to existing parks. There is certainly reason to believe (in that scenario) that Disney park attendance will remain stable.

If Comcast only invests money building Comcast's Epic Universe park, and neglects to invest money in Comcast's Universal Studios Florida, or Comcast's Islands of Adventure, then those old, already neglected Comcast parks will likely lose market share to the new Comcast park.

Of course this assumes that Comcast remains in the themed entertainment business and doesn't dart in 2027/2028.

Haha, a Google search will instantly prove that international visitors as down because of Florida's now non-existent gun laws. But the point is obvious: thinking people don't want to visit hateful places with oppressive policies, and there's nothing more hateful and would-be oppressive than the pathetic MAGA cult. That's why red states aren't popular vacation destinations, that's why most red states are business wastelands, and Florida is now firmly a red state, and its fortunes will continue to sink until they get rid of their hateful government. This isn't complicated.

Sure, angry old white guys like our buddy TH don't have any problem with it, because those are his people, they'll welcome his angry white butt with open arms, they probably have a AR-15 waiting for him to use. Everybody else is a potential enemy of the state that might be shot on site. Thank goodness for Cali!

A "Google search" constitutes demographic data that clearly illustrates a causal relationship between Florida politics and economic trends in the state's tourist industry?

Um ... okay.

What's funny is that if you actually do a "Google search" as thecolonel suggests to find articles about the impact of Florida's politics on the tourism industry, you find a bunch of opinion pieces that infer a potential causality, but most of the fact-based articles paint a different picture with almost surprised disgust from journalists that there seems to have been little effect. However, most of those articles are from 8-12 months ago with little recent discussion or analysis about the connection, indicating to me that with DeSantis out of the Presidential race (and declining national media interest in him and the need to discredit him by folks of both sides of the political aisle - don't get it twisted, I'm by no means a fan of the governor or his politics), there's little evidence to draw any sort of definitive conclusion.

That's not to say there aren't individuals and groups that are refusing to fuel an economy that feeds an agenda they despise, but it's probably a drop in the ocean when compared to the entirety Florida tourism industry. However, I do find it hypocritical that thecolonel feels the need to spew the same kind of hate that they find objectionable when discussing residents and visitors of an entire state.

@ thecolonel
Don't forget we're Americans first and political parties second. That side wants to divide us, because they can't actually win elections fairly based on good policy. Don't let them. Go anywhere you want because it's our country, regardless of which bafoons happen to be in power at the, hopefully brief, moment. And I'm willing to bet you actually have more in common with an average person in Florida, than differences.