Which parks top the Six Flags cut list?

I think there's a pretty clear list of parks that Six Flags would close based on underperformance, lack of recent investment, and/or proximity to other parks...

1. Great America - This park is obviously on the chopping block because the park does not own the land that it is sitting on. While I think the Bay Area could easily support two theme parks that are a solid hour drive from each other, Six Flags Discovery Kingdom is the better of the 2, and there's no reason for SF to try to renegotiate the lease of Great America.

2. Six Flags America - This one pains me because it's my home park, but with Kings Dominion 90 minutes away and Dorney Park and Six Flags Great Adventure each about 2-3 hours away, SFA is definitely the odd one out here. For as maligned as SFA is, I've always felt the park staff do their best with very limited resources, but the attraction list just can't compete with other parks in the region with Superman, Joker's Jinx, and Batwing the only truly world-class rides.

3. Great Escape - Personally, both of the upstate New York parks in the chain are dump-able, but this one is the lesser of the 2. The park did receive a new woodie last year (Bobcat), but investment here over the past decade has been lagging. Of all the SF parks that weren't previously Cedar Fair parks, this is the one that feels least like a SF park, probably because it wasn't rolled into the chain until 2021.

4. Darien Lake - Speaking of upstate NY parks, this one would be the next to go mostly because of its proximity to Canadas Wonderland (little over 2 hour drive, though across an international border requiring a passport). This park has a couple of unusual attractions for a SF park and has been in and out of the chain over the past 20 years, which is why some areas do not have traditional SF-style theming.

5. Dorney Park - This park is just in a bad situation in a town that put restrictions on what can be built here and in a market that has a number of other parks within a 1-2 hours radius (Hersheypark, SFGAdv, Knoebels, and Sesame Place). This park has a top notch coaster collection and a number of classic rides, but if SF wanted to cut deep to trim the fat, this would probably be one of the last parks that could get cut.

6. Six Flags St. Louis - This is another park that hasn't gotten much investment over the years. They do have a Justice League dark ride, but their coaster collection is mediocre and aging. The park is 4+ hours from another park in the chain (SFGAm or WoF), but both Holiday World and Silver Dollar City pull from this metro area and offer far superior experiences.

Six Flags Great Adventure is just sad these days. Was there for their recent 50th anniversary and it is a sorry shadow of it's former glory days. Many rides were closed, others went down the first hour and stayed down all day. It had the look of a decrepit place and hard to remember it in it's glory days back in the '90's. You would have thought they would have had it shining as they had hung up posters celebrating it's big anniversary, but no. Lines were full of disappointed patron goers.

Darien Lake is not owned by Six Flags, it’s only managed by them.

To clarify: Six Flags may be able to choose to terminate operation agreements, in addition to selling parks and land that it owns. Getting out of operation deals can help boost corporate earnings if they do not produce a return that equals or exceeds owned properties.

Let's look at this by region...

West Coast: Right now, the two SoCal parks and the three NorCal parks function as two distinct clusters that feed off of each other. However, once California's Great America closes, I think it's possible Six Flags could opt to cease operations in NorCal by divesting Discovery Kingdom and Hurricane Harbor Concord, focusing their west coast operations on the more populous (and more profitable) SoCal market. As for Hurricane Harbor Phoenix, that's probably one of the first parks to go.

Texas: I think dropping Hurricane Harbor Splashtown and Schlitterbahn Galveston is likely. The two theme parks, as well as Schlitterbahn New Braunfels, would be less likely to sell, and I suspect they'd only do so if they decided to just exit the region completely (highly unlikely). Frontier City is 50-50...if it's a Michigan's Adventure situation (high revenue with limited investment), they'll probably keep it, but otherwise they might cut it loose.

Central Midwest: This region is a bit interesting. Despite being in the same state, Six Flags St. Louis and Worlds of Fun don't really compete with each other, which makes keeping both, keeping one, or dropping both all possibilities. If they drop one, I'd guess ditching St. Louis and retaining Worlds of Fun as more likely. Despite being an original location for Cedar Fair, I also think Valleyfair might now be at risk of sale as it's pretty far removed from anywhere else in the chain, has a limited operating season, and seems to get very little investment despite being near a population center. Six Flags Great America is 100% safe.

Eastern Midwest: I don't see anything changing here.

Deep South: Carowinds and Six Flags Over Georgia don't really compete directly with each other, so I could see them selling off SFOG if it underperforms. Carowinds isn't going anywhere.

East Coast: There are a lot of parks scattered throughout this region, but due to their locations relative to each other I'd consider a sale of any of them unlikely to prevent creating competition with another operator. Depending on the land value, however, I could see a Geauga Lake situation occur where the park is shuttered instead of sold in the event a park isn't drawing visitors.

Canada: Canada's Wonderland is definitely safe, but I could see ditching La Ronde.

Mexico: I don't know the financials of these parks, but as they're in a poorer country I wouldn't be surprised if Six Flags decided to sell them off and exit the market. They definitely have very little cross-visitation with any of the properties elsewhere in the chain.

In summary...

High Risk of Sale: Hurricane Harbor Oaxtepec, Hurricane Harbor Phoenix, Hurricane Harbor Splashtown, Mexico, Schlitterbahn Galveston
Medium Risk of Sale: Discovery Kingdom, Hurricane Harbor Concord, La Ronde, Over Georgia, St. Louis, Valleyfair, White Water, Worlds of Fun
Sale Unlikely, Closure Possible: California's Great America, Great Escape, Michigan's Adventure, Six Flags America
Termination of Contract Likely: Darien Lake, Hurricane Harbor Rockford
Wildcard: Frontier City
Minimal Risk of Status Change: Canada's Wonderland, Carowinds, Cedar Point, Dorney Park, Fiesta Texas, Great Adventure, Great America, Kings Island, Kings Dominion, Knott's Berry Farm, Magic Mountain, New England, Over Texas, Schlitterbahn New Braunfels

SFA has obviously been the elephant in the room since the merger was announced. Its in direct competition with KD and I think there is no chance they sell it to another operator because why would they want competition (especially someone that's going to run the park better) to come in and take market share in a really large and wealthy DC market?

I see one of two outcomes happening here: I think the most likely is they just sell it to developers who are going to build something else. The other, but less likely, would be like what CF did to Geauga Lake where they try to salvage the waterpark since those always seem to be pretty successful with locals and have much lower operating costs than theme parks. Or they could do what they did with GL and try the waterpark only thing and then eventually just close that too.

Other than that, with the exception of CGA which was already on the chopping block, the only other substantial park that seems like a maybe is Dorney for all the reasons Russell said. From a corporate standpoint they could take the position of no justification to invest in major rides there when it directly competes with SFGADV which is not far away and is a flagship of the chain. That would be absolutely brutal though from a "fan of the industry" perspective and for locals as well as its a historic park that's been there for generations.

The dinky parks like Frontier City, Great Escape, Darien Lake etc I have no idea. I guess if they make money they will probably keep the status quo but who knows.