Is Disney in decline ?

My TLDR observations: the "old guard" is gone now. The George K's, Jim McPhee's, etc who knew how to strike the balance of business and also keeping the fans and public happy are no longer represented in the top brass of the parks business. They have retired and/or been pushed out over the years.

The people that run the place now basically have no shame. This has been a slow process that has gone on for decades but has become very apparent over the last 5 years or so since the prices have become so asinine and there are so many upcharges now. Every decision made at Disney is made off of data with zero input from any creative types.

It's my belief that the roller coaster wars have ended, but we now enter a kind of theme Park wars. For a few years now, universal has pushed the envelope in theme Park and ride design and Disney has, well, tried with a few interesting rides and lands. The turning point will be epic Universe's opening.

@Rob P: I hope you will make your next discussion thread topic, "Are Comcast's USF and IOA in decline"?

@V-Coaster Fan, you write: "For a few years now, (Comcast) has pushed the envelope in theme park and ride design". Where in the existing Orlando parks has Comcast pushed that envelope, please?

I suppose nothing really interesting has come to studios, but I was a fan of Velocicoaster. Even though it's been a while since Hagrid's, there's another example. And they're building a F&F rollercoaster in Hollywood if that helps. I wasn't trying to say that Universal has been infallible and perfect, because they're not, but good things have come to the parks. Also, universal quality of life is still a lot different then Disney's, with their better line system and resort perks.

In the last 15 years, DLR and WDW have come out with the following “E-Tickets”:

-Radiator Springs Racers
-Toy Story Midway Mania
-Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance
-Mickey & Minnie’s Runaway Railway
-Tron: Lightcycle Run
-Seven Dwarves Minetrain
-Guardians of the Galaxy: Cosmic Rewind
-Ratatouille: Remy’s Adventure
-Avatar: Flight of Passage

vs USH and UO have put out the following “E-Tickets”

-Harry Potter Forbidden Journey
-Harry Potter Escape from Gringotts
-Transformers: The Ride
-Hagrid’s Motorbike
-VelociCoaster
-Mario Kart: Bowser’s Challenge
-Despicable Me: Minion Mayhem

I haven’t ridden all of these rides, but it does seem like Universal has generally been more aggressive in adding top-tier rides than Disney has. I don’t think Disney is necessarily in decline, but I do agree with the narrative that Universal is quickly catching up and that the opening of Epic Universe could most definitely be a turning point in this theme park war.

For me, the answer is no. As long as Disney continues to deliver great attractions each year, then I'm satisfied.

@Juan Hamilton: If you're gonna claim Minion Mayhem is an "e-ticket" then Smuggler's Run and the Rapunzel restrooms in MKP Fantasyland should be added to the Disney column.

Also, why is your analysis related to Disney's aggression limited to US parks? The opening of Shanghai and expansions at Hong Kong, Paris and Tokyo don't get any love?

For that matter you also fail to note that 'Rise of the Resistance' and Runaway Railway were built at two locations (pretty "aggressive").

And you do Comcast a favor extending your timeframe to 15 years -- which ropes in HPFJ. If you only look at the last five years Disney has eight, domestic "aggressive" additions -- ROTR (x2), MMRR (x2), TLR. That's one more attraction than the number on your Comcast list -- which (again) extends back more than a decade and includes that Minion thing.

There's another argument to be made here for theme consistency. Out of all of the E-tickets listed, only a few of them come packaged with their own land (for both parks). When Universal builds a park, you're expecting to "ride the movies", so a random transformers ride is acceptable. However, a technology/world showcase themed park like EPCOT absolutely should not have rides like cosmic rewind and ratatouille. Even though these are good rides, universal is maintaining their original lands. Exceptions are to be made to studios (of course) but when Disney puts Cars in a California park they're not really maintaining a theme, are they? Or does IP now act as a replacement for one?

@VelocicoasterFan: So a ride set in the kitchen of a FRENCH restaurant is not maintaining the theme of the FRENCH pavilion? Does that mean Remy's appearances at Chefs de France and at character meet and greets are also not properly themed?

Disney is not in decline, and any suggestion that it is blatantly ignores every metric used to measure success (revenue, profit, attendance, guest satisfaction, etc...). Disney is about to pump billions of dollars into the Parks and Experiences division over the next decade after recovering from the Pandemic.

I think what is true about Disney is that they are shifting their focus and target demographics, which is obviously frustrating if you do not identify with the new focus of the company's efforts. However, to say they're in decline is pretty oblivious to reality and the evidence presented here cherry picks references to support a strawman argument from an unprecedented period of history (and theme park history).

I think Russel makes the best argument here. Also, the ratatouille ride has nothing to do with French culture, even though the movie does. Just because it features food doesn't mean anything. Disney just dumped IP on a good ride, but a bad spot.

I've been hearing "Disney in decline" for so long, it's hard to take seriously.

V-Coaster: "Also, the ratatouille ride has nothing to do with French culture ..."

Me: Yes. because cuisine and restaurants have nothing to do with French culture.

(Chuckle)

@velocicoasterfan - If you want to criticize Ratatouille, you can knock it for being a clone of the DSP attraction and a repeat of the 00's convention of cloning attractions across the chain. However, to say the attraction doesn't fit the EPCOT France pavilion is absurd. It's actually a perfect match as the original Pixar movie is set in Paris and EPCOT's pavilion leans heavily into the French food culture (they've even used Remy and Linguini as icons of the EPCOT F&W Festival). In fact, Disney even created a picturesque Parisian courtyard and quick-serve restaurant to further bolster the bond between the IP and the pavilion. Frankly, it even more seamless than Frozen Ever After over in Norway (or the Beauty and the Beast singalong, also in France), so I don't understand the criticism, particularly since the installation of Ratatouille actually expanded the France pavilion and did not change the look or silhouette of the area from the lagoon (or cause anything within the pavilion to be removed or modified in any substantial way).

I suppose you're right about this one. I think my personal bias against IP gives me something to hate about this ride and the direction of EPCOT. Say all you want about EPCOT's original rides, but I prefer the theme and direction those took as opposed to the newer rides. The issue (for the most part) isn't Disney, it's the direction they're taking in their recent ride design.

(Chuckle)

NEXT!

Disney is not in decline, but they sure have been making some boneheaded decisions lately.

I don't think Disney as a whole is in decline, but integral business areas are facing [to steal a keyword form Bob Iger] disruption. To combat this disruption, Disney is leaning on their cash cow: the parks. They are leveraging the massive DPEP EBITDA to buoy their other verticals: the fledgling Disney+, the rocky Studios unit [which is recovering from massive headwinds due to the pandemic and middling output quality], & their linear TV networks [which is an industry in secular decline].

By using the parks as a piggy bank, Disney was able to keep itself in its current form without needing to sell off ESPN or other television networks. Unfortunately, this entailed extracting as much value as possible as fast as possible from the parks business.

Since Disney has [relatively speaking] stabilized financially from many of these challenges coming out of the pandemic [their Studio business is doing much better comparatively this year, for example], they can now use the extra value they started extracting from the parks to reinvest in the parks [hence the huge transformations announced at D23].

Disney, like most businesses, has its highs and lows, its ebbs and flows. In order to drag itself out of a low, Disney decided to trade long-term guest satisfaction for a short-term EBITDA injection.

Disney is not in decline -- but it is much less consumer-friendly.

When it's the standard parade of regular commenters dumping on Disney, I wave them off as trolls. But when I read the following from a friend who is long time WDW veteran ... (as a CM and guest) well ... Read it for yourself:

"Wow! So pull it together Disney Springs! Shopping for our niece - clueless employees at Sephora- told me to order on line - line (too) long for gift card ; Lilly Pulitzer terrible selection unless you like giraffes- no one offered to help. Pandora - good ! But my goodness why do I come here ? No one cares … Boathouse - amazing - go see Jeremy ! Best ever ! Wtf ! For what we would have spent. But nope ! Best ever. Summerhouse - pre batch old fashioned - no cherry. WTH. Never coming back. 'everyone at Disney springs does that'. Ah no. Boathouse does not. City works does not. Charge me 15 for sh*tty old fashioned- at least give me a cherry. Nope. Not here !"

BACK TO ME: I fear the labor shortage in Central Florida is taking its toll on Disney's level of quality service. And those younger CMs, who have no real loyalty to the company and its history ... They may well end up leaving for an EPIC adventure.

Disney has a problem.

I think @TH Creative is bang on here when he talks about staffing being the biggest challenge facing Disney in Orlando. But to expand on his point, I think it's the existential threat facing the theme park industry whether we're talking about Orlando or Los Angeles.

These jobs demand a level of training and dedication that is not matched by the wages on offer. I'm not even talking about chasing a "living wage," I'm talking about Disneyland being forced to compete with Target on wages. Of course, Disney and Universal can try to find a way other than money to make their employees feel loyal and dedicated to the cause ... but neither have seemed up to that challenge, either.

You're seeing this with tremendous impact on seasonal halloween events in Southern California. The regular cast is burned out and the money and perks are not enough to sustain things right now. It's going to be a fascinating next 10 years.

At J. Sundstrom: It's also the biggest challenge for Comcast.

@Jacob - You're definitely spot on, and I think it's a general trend in America right now with employees showing little to no loyalty to their employers. A job is just a job or a step to another job, not a career these days. There's little to no benefit anymore to showing loyalty to your employer (or vice versa), even in industries/businesses that require massive costs for onboarding. You'd think employers would do more to retain talent, particularly when they're spending thousands (and in some cases tens of thousands) of dollars to onboard employees, but the incentives for employees to stay with one company just aren't there, and in many cases the benefits that used to exist to encourage to stay long term (like pensions, exponentially improved time off policies, and shift preferences) don't exist anymore.

From personal experience, I've been with my firm for over 20 years, and have a handful of colleagues in my team who have similar tenures. However, of employees hired over the past 10 years, probably fewer than 5% have made it past their 5-year anniversary, and it's more and more common to see new hires bolt within their first year, even if they're forced to repay the company for some of their onboarding (mostly training costs). It's bizarre, because my firm is always talking about finding way to improve retention, but the recent changes in policy offer absolutely ZERO benefits to staying with the company over the long term (every employee has virtually the same number of vacation days, holidays, health, and retirement benefits).

It's ruthless out there, and there doesn't appear to be an end in sight with people just jumping from job to job. For companies that try to differentiate themselves with exemplary customer service or highly specialized skills, the lack of continuity and consistency in employees makes it difficult to highlight and excel at what makes them better than their competitors.

@TH Creative: That's what I was saying! It's certainly not just a Disney problem, and as Russell points out, it's become endemic to the workforce.

I think there are ways Disney and Comcast could attack this ... but I do not think it's very likely they'll commit to the money and time it takes to do so.

When I started this thread I knew that I had only to light the blue touch paper to elicit the informative and passionate responses that contributors to TPI always present.

I'm happy to concede that Disney is not at all in decline. They just do a good job of making it look that way.

None of the parent companies are immune to market forces and I'm sure they are all doing what they believe to be right to maintain profitability and to keep our Parks alive. Disney is no exception but a bit of VoxPop might be good PR.

My concerns over Disney making knee-jerk reactions to their competitors' developments appear to be unfounded. Although I do still have reservations over issues such as the removal of ROA and TSI and the use of expensive LLs. But these are just my personal preferences and it remains to be seen whether or not they improve the overall Disney experience.

@Rob p - But are those really "knee jerk reactions" or are they a natural evolution of their parks and operations that would have occurred whether Epic Universe was being built or not?

Personally, I feel that competition brings out the best in people and while the Universal versus Disney "battle" looks like a high stakes game of chicken, it's really a heathy environment of collaboration where creative professionals are working together while developing innovative attractions that happen to get built in different company's parks. I've never been in WDI or UC, but my understanding is that the two groups are not isolated from each other despite the impression that their are fierce competitors. In fact, I have read various stories where professionals have floated back and forth between the companies and the fact that both utilize many of the same subcontractors who supply the hardware and software for their creations.

I do think there is some action/reaction to what the 2 companies do, but I think it's really more in the long-term planning. Ultimately, the 2 are trying to attract many of the same customers (though there is some differentiation between their bases), so after years of operating parks in the same market, they're probably going to arrive to many of the same solutions to issues they face and are going to constantly try to innovate and experiment to find that edge that gives them something they can market to their unique guests.

RM: "... it's really a heathy environment of collaboration where creative professionals are working together while developing innovative attractions that happen to get built in different company's parks."

Me: That might be the most thoughtful, informed content ever posted on TPI.

Most of what Russell says here is true, but Disney announcing their own Villains land right after Dark Universe is definitely not the natural progression of the park. That's not to say that I don't support it, but it's no coincidence either

I would think that Villains Land is less of a response to Epic Universe and more of a response from fans who have been asking for that for years.

What I'm saying is, they could've built a Villains land at any time because the fans were asking. It "just so happens" that they announced it right after Dark Universe was being built.

@V-Coaster: Surely, you understand that Disney's decision to develop a Villains Land was based on a long list on reasons.

And when you respond, please make the 'Airplane' joke :o)

Of course I understand that a Villains land is a good fit for the park and that it works for many reasons. I don't understand what the "'Airplane' joke" is. . .is it an inside joke? Shoot. I feel out of the loop.

@VelocicoasterFan - Here you go:

TH Creative: "Surely, you understand that Disney's decision to develop a Villains Land was based on a long list on reasons."

Proper response: "Of course I understand that a Villains land is a good fit for the park and that it works for many reasons. And don't call me Shirley."

(You're welcome.)

I overheard this conversation between two women at today's Winter Garden Farmer's Market. "Universal was great! We had the whole park to ourselves. But when we went to Disney, the crowds were crazy and the lines were so long".

I guess Minions and the Dreamworks playground weren't the draw that Comcast had hoped.

Related: At DAK opening today, the posted wait time for 'Flight of Passage' was north of 120 minutes.

Or Maybe Minions and Dreamworks Playground are exactly the draws they predicted they would be.

The day of the week can make a difference to crowd levels, so without that info, what you overheard means less.

It could also be a testament to how mismanaged and chaotic the line management is at Disney

anecdotal evidence like that is totally meaningless

that said, the new minions ride is quite bad. whether that means anything or not... I can not say

As someone whose worked at Disneyland and WDW I can say that in recent years, because of the massive population growth in Florida (and southeast region of the US in general), WDW has become more like DLR in some ways. Now the 3 day weekends like this weekend have become substantially more crowded. Florida has 5 million more people now than it did 15 years ago. WDW, UO, and Sea World all have much more substantial local traffic than in the past.

It is being reported that the $450 Lightning Lane passes for Thanksgiving are sold out.

"It is being reported that the $450 Lightning Lane passes for Thanksgiving are sold out."

Yes, at MK and DHS to be more accurate.

A great way to keep these ridiculously priced options alive & well is to be foolish enough to buy them.

I really can’t comprehend which attractions at Magic Kingdom could come close to justifying that type of upcharge.

@Chopper31 - There are no singular attractions that are worth the upcharge, but it might be valuable to someone who wants to "speed run" the whole park in a single day, particularly on a peak capacity day when guests are shoulder to shoulder and lines for mediocre rides are 20-30 minutes. If you think about it, it might take even a savvy, experienced guest a solid 2-3 days to experience every attraction at the MK. On peak days, it costs almost $200/day just in admission just to walk through the MK gates and that doesn't include what it would cost for LL-SU or LL-MP if you want to avoid some of the park's craziest lines (like 120+ minutes for Space Mountain or Tron). So if you can spend $650 to experience every single attraction in the MK in a single day versus $600 to do the same across 3 days, I think there is some value in buying the upcharge.

It's really no different than buying Universal Express during HHN, where guests are paying $120+ for admission on peak days and then another $300+ for an Express Pass. The difference is that for HHN, experienced guests can see everything in a single visit without paying extra, which just isn't the case anymore at MK on a peak day.

Disney is not wrong for charging ridiculous amounts of money to those fortunate few who could drop that much on a singular ticket. In fact, every established theme park has one: Universal Express, Quick Queue, whatever six flags has, etc. The issue is that Disney already has skip- the- line passes for cheap, and the system is already too complex for new guests when idiots like me are scratching their heads at the whole thing. Disney has a leg up on Universal on a lot of things, but Disney should take notes. This is a cash grab.

I can certainly appreciate paying more to get a trip squeezed in a fewer amount of days.

Just 3 weeks ago, my Family of 4 stayed 1 night at Loews Royal Pacific for about $667. With that one night stay, all 4 of us Universal Express Unlimited Passes for 2 full days (1 day at each park). With exception to Hagrid’s MBA, we walked on anything we wanted and felt “pressure free” the entire time.

It would cost us $3,400 for the 4 of us to get the $425 LL deal at WDW for 2 days, but no hotel room included (let alone one at a premier resort). All that extra expense to go on the likes of Peter Pan, Winnie the Pooh and the Seven Dwarfs Mine Train. I can’t remember, was this still on the schedule that is provided to you by Disney, and were there limits on each time you can enter the Lightning Lane for each ride ?

Either way, no real comparison to what a single night stay at a Universal Premier Resort can get you…

@Chopper: You seem really upset about people making their own choices about how they choose to spend their own money.

I'm sure Robert will eventually write a story on this, but Disney just eliminated the requirement at WDW for guests to be staying at a Deluxe Resort in order to purchase LL-PP. The product will now be available to any on-site guest and guests of select off-site resorts. My guess is that in general the sales of LL-PP have not been as strong as expected (outside of next week, of course), and removing the Deluxe Resort guest limitation will probably see more dates selling out, particularly at MK and DHS where LL-PP is actually worth the price because of the number of attractions available in those parks.

I'm sure Robert will eventually write a story on this, but word is that the Muppets will move from their aging 3D movie and invade Rock & Rollercoaster. That puts the planned 'Monsters Inc.' coaster in the area where the Muppet theater currently resides/

I love coming in here every few days to read the Pixie Duster's posts reassuring himself Disney is still on top. Two women had a conversation... what a metric for gauging theme park attendance.

The desperation is still palpable, and Comcast / Universal still living rent free. I just can't believe its been almost 2 decades of the same thing.

Disney's decision to add the 'Monsters, Inc.' E-ticket and theater show, along with the Muppets overlay at RRC is brilliant. Introducing a completely new land, plus replacing an antiquated band with IP the company owns outright makes sense. They can stagger the opening of the attractions to maximize the impact on attendance. This is a strong counter to the opening of Comcast's new park.

If they do replace Aerosmith and RnR Coaster how much do you think Disney will sell the "Big Strat" for ?

Won't fit in the house so it'll have to go in the garden.

Something tells me the Big Strat will become a Muppet-fied Big Strat. I vote giant rubber chicken with coaster tracks

The traffic line heading westbound on the segment of Buena Vista Drive to the DSTP parking garages was backed up down Hotel Plaza Boulevard.

Cash registers overheating. 'Tis the season.

That post gives me PTSD of the holiday season that they were renovating Downtown Disney into Disney Springs and the roads/parking were under heavy construction. When the onslaught of holiday crowds came it was...not great. At the time I worked at Downtown Disney Transportation right in the middle of the construction and traffic and had the wonderful experience of getting stuck in the middle of an hour long traffic jam with no one moving, and being a sitting duck with a Disney management logo on my car. Let the cuss words fly (TBH by that point I was old and it certainly wasn't my first rodeo, but it was still a nightmare I will never forget.

Its 1000% better now, the bus lanes and parking garages were perfectly designed for the space they had to work with.